Seasonal-to-Decadal Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice: Challenges and Strategies

This book explores modeling, and understanding and projecting future sea ice conditions, local populations, natural resource industries, fishing communities, commercial shippers, marine tourism operators, national security organizations, regulatory agencies, and the scientific research community.

Recent well documented reductions in the thickness and extent of Arctic sea ice cover, which can be linked to the warming climate, are affecting the global climate system and are also affecting the global economic system as marine access to the Arctic region and natural resource development increase. Satellite data show that during each of the past six summers, sea ice cover has shrunk to its smallest in three decades. The composition of the ice is also changing, now containing a higher fraction of thin first-year ice instead of thicker multi-year ice.


Contents
SUMMARY
1 INTRODUCTION
2 GAPS IN OUR UNDERSTANDING
Overarching Challenges
Treating Sea Ice as Part of the Global System
Impacts of the Regime Shift of Arctic Sea Ice
Identifying Diverse and Emerging Stakeholder Requirements
Challenges in Advancing Predictive Capability
Competing Approaches to Seasonal Sea Ice Prediction
Observational Requirements for Seasonal Sea Ice Prediction
Projecting Realistic Forcings and Feedbacks for Decadal Sea Ice Predictions
3 STRATEGIES FOR THE FUTURE
Overarching Strategy
A Deliberately Integrative Approach for Sustained and Coordinated Collaboration among User, Modeling and Observation Communities
Strategies to Improve Sea Ice Predictive Capabilities: Seasonal to Decadal Timescales
Evaluation of Existing Seasonal Prediction Methods
Process-Based Studies Targeted at the Increasingly Prevalent First-Year Ice Cover
Model Sensitivity Studies to Determine Key, First-Order Observational Needs
Enhanced Numerical Model Capabilities
Knowledge Management
Improved Information and Data Management
4 CONCLUSION
REFERENCES
APPENDIXES
A Summary of Recent and Evolving Arctic Sea Ice Predictability Efforts
B Workshop Information
C Summaries of Workshop Panels and Breakout Discussions
D Committee and Staff Biographical Sketches