Time Series Forecasting With Python

Learn how to use Python for Forecasting time series data, using ARIMA, Prophet, Statsmodels

What you'll learn

Forecast sales and revenue for a small business using python

Make accurate forecasts, by learning about forecasting metrics, and comparing multiple forecasting models and their parameters

Read time series data from excel files, manipulate the data in python, do data cleaning and deal with missing data

Use Prophet and Seasonal ARIMA models to forecast complex time series with seasonality

Understand trend and seasonality in a time series, and how to break down trend and seasonality

Requirements

Elementary python experience with basics of pandas

Description

Welcome to Time Series Forecasting with Python. This course will teach you how to effectively analyze and forecast time series data using Python, making it ideal for anyone looking to predict future trends in areas like finance, sales, and environmental science. You will start by learning the fundamentals of time series, including how to identify key features such as trend, seasonality, and noise. The course will guide you through reading and writing time series data from Excel, enabling seamless data integration. You'll also discover various visualization techniques to help you explore and understand the structure of time series data, using real-world examples such as stock price analysis.After mastering the basics, you'll dive deeper into creating and working with time series data that exhibit both trend and seasonality. You'll learn how to decompose these components to better understand and model the data. The course then introduces the Seasonal ARIMA model, a powerful tool for forecasting time series data. You will gain both an intuitive and mathematical understanding of the model, learning how to implement it in Python, generate forecasts, and visualize the results.You will also explore the Prophet model, comparing it with the Seasonal ARIMA model to understand their differences, strengths, and suitable applications. By the end of the course, you will be proficient in using these advanced forecasting techniques, evaluating the quality of your forecasts, and refining them for better accuracy. This hands-on experience with real-world datasets will equip you with the skills needed to handle complex time series forecasting challenges with confidence.

Overview

Section 1: Introduction

Lecture 1 Introduction

Lecture 2 Examples of Time Series

Lecture 3 Characteristics of Time Series Data

Lecture 4 Reading and Writing Time Series from Excel

Lecture 5 Visualizing Time Series Data Part One

Lecture 6 Visualizing Time Series Data Part Two

Lecture 7 Visualizing Stock Price Data

Section 2: Trend and Seasonality in Time Series

Lecture 8 Examples of Trend and Seasonality

Lecture 9 Creating Time Series with Trend and Seasonality

Lecture 10 Decomposing Trend and Seasonality

Section 3: Forecasting with a Seasonal ARIMA Model

Lecture 11 Seasonal ARIMA model: Intuitions

Lecture 12 Seasonal ARIMA Model: Mathematical Understanding

Lecture 13 Producing a Forecast with Seasonal ARIMA Model

Lecture 14 Visualizing the Forecast and Understanding Uncertainty in Forecast

Lecture 15 Evaluating the Quality of the Forecast

Section 4: Forecasting with the Prophet Model

Lecture 16 Differences between Prophet and Seasonal ARIMA Model

Lecture 17 Forecasting Time Series with Prophet

Lecture 18 Evaluating a Prophet Forecast

Lecture 19 Improving a Prophet Forecast

Business Analysts, Data Scientists, Small Business owners, machine learning engineers