Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia

The book quantifies the outcomes of different stabilization targets for greenhouse gas concentrations using analyses and information drawn from the scientific literature. Climate Stabilization Targets emphasizes the importance of 21st century choices regarding long-term climate stabilization. It is a useful resource for scientists, educators and policy makers, among others.

This new report from the National Research Council concludes that emissions of carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels have ushered in a new epoch where human activities will largely determine the evolution of Earth's climate. Because carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is long lived, it can effectively lock the Earth and future generations into a range of impacts, some of which could become very severe.
The report quantifies several future impacts per degree (°C) of global warming. The report also demonstrates that emissions reductions larger than about 80 , relative to whatever peak global emissions rate may be reached, are required to approximately stabilize carbon dioxide concentrations for a century or so at any chosen target level.

Although it does not recommend or justify any particular stabilization target, it does provide important scientific insights about the relationships among emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations, temperatures, and impacts.

Table of Contents
SECTION I
SYNOPSIS
SUMMARY
OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND ILLUSTRATIVE IMPACTS
SECTION II
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 The Foci of This Report: Climate Changes and Implications for a Range of Alternative Future Worlds
1.2 Attribution
2 EMISSIONS, CONCENTRATIONS, AND RELATED FACTORS
2.1 Contribution of Different Chemicals to CO2-Equivalent Levels and Climate Changes
2.2 Information from Scenarios
2.3 Short-lived Radiative Forcing Agents
2.4 Carbon Cycle
3 GLOBAL MEAN TEMPERATURE RESPONSES 83
3.1 Overview of Timescales and Climate Sensitivity
3.2 Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity
3.3 Transient Climate Response and Sensitivity
3.4 Cumulative Carbon
4 PHYSICAL CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE 21st CENTURY
4.1 Regional Patterns of Warming and Related Factors
4.2 Precipitation Response
4.3 Hurricanes
4.4 Circulation and Related Factors
4.5 Temperature Extremes
4.6 Precipitation Extremes
4.7 Sea Ice, Snow, and Related Factors
4.8 Sea Level Rise (inc. ice sheets and glaciers)
4.9 Ocean Acidification
5 IMPACTS IN THE NEXT FEW DECADES AND COMING CENTURIES
5.1 Food Production, Prices, and Hunger
5.2 Coastal Erosion and Flooding
5.3 Streamflow
5.4 Fire
5.5 Infrastructure
5.6 Health
5.7 Ecology and Ecosystems
5.8 Biological Ocean
5.9 Illustrative Additional Factors
6 BEYOND THE NEXT FEW CENTURIES
6.1 Long-term Feedbacks and Earth System Sensitivity
6.2 Long-term Societal and Environmental Issues
REFERENCES
APPENDIXES
A Statement of Task
B Committee Membership
C Methods
D Acronym List