Russian Foreign Policy: Sources and Implications

As Russia's economy has grown, so have the country's global involvement and influence, which often take forms that the United States neither expects nor likes, as the August 2008 conflict in Georgia demonstrated. Despite the two countries' many disagreements and the rising tension between them, the United States and Russia share some key interests and goals. In this monograph, the authors assess Russia's strategic interests and the factors that influence Russian foreign policy broadly. They examine Russia's domestic policies, economic development, and views of the world, as well as how these translate into security policies at home and abroad. They then consider the implications of Russia's evolving approaches for U.S. interests.

The authors find that Russia's rising confidence will continue to create challenges for U.S. policymakers. The U.S. goal must therefore be to improve relations with Russia and build on shared views and shared interests, rather than to pursue coercive mechanisms that can easily backfire. Among other steps, the authors recommend that Washington

* vigorously pursue new arms control agreements with Moscow
* allay Russian fears about proposed U.S. missile defenses in Europe
* reevaluate its promotion of energy pipeline routes that circumvent Russia
* resume consistent, high-level consultations, including military-to-military contacts.

If Russo-U.S. relations do not improve, the United States must find ways to keep poor relations with Russia from turning into adversarial ones. The Department of Defense and U.S. Air Force have important roles to play in either scenario.

Contents
Russian Foreign Policy, Sources and Implications (2009)
Cover
Title Page
Copyright
Preface
RAND Project AIR FORCE
Contents
Figures
Summary
Domestic Issues
The Economy
Foreign Policy
Security Policy
Implications for the United States and the U.S. Air Force
Acknowledgments
Abbreviations
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
A New Russia
Russia’s Security Outlook
U.S. Security Interests
Research Approach
Monograph Outline
CHAPTER TWO
Russia’s Domestic Situation
Politics in Putin’s Russia: Centralization and Control
Threats from Within: Domestic Security Issues
Russian Public Opinion
Implications of Domestic Threats for Foreign Policy
CHAPTER THREE
Russia’s Economy and Russian Resources for Defense
Outlook for the Russian Economy
Defense Spending
The Defense Industry
CHAPTER FOUR
Russian Foreign Policy
Russian Foreign Policy: Focus on Prestige and Economic Growth
Russia’s Post-Soviet Neighbors
Europe
The Middle East
Asia
Transnational Threats
The United States
Russian Public Opinion on Foreign Policy
Russia’s Evolving Goals
CHAPTER FIVE
Russia’s Defense and Security Policy
Goals and Doctrine
Manpower
Counterterrorism, Ground, and Naval Forces
Russia’s Air Force: Capabilities and Trajectory
Strategic Nuclear Forces
CHAPTER SIX
Today’s Russia: Implications for the United States
A Dif.cult Partner
The Costs of Discord: Why a Better Relationship Is in U.S. Interests
Implications of Russian Arms Sales for U.S. Policy
Strategies for Fostering Cooperation for the U.S. Government and the U.S. Air Force
Managing Discord
Bibliography