Assessing Risk Assessment

by Christian Hugo Hoffmann (Author)

Christian Hugo Hoffmann undermines the citadel of risk assessment and management, arguing that classical probability theory is not an adequate foundation for modeling systemic and extreme risk in complex financial systems. He proposes a new class of models which focus on the knowledge dimension by precisely describing market participants’ own positions and their propensity to react to outside changes. The author closes his thesis by a synthetical reflection on methods and elaborates on the meaning of decision-making competency in a risk management context in banking. By choosing this poly-dimensional approach, the purpose of his work is to explore shortcomings of risk management approaches of financial institutions and to point out how they might be overcome.

Contents
Concepts, Model Level and Risk Assessment
The Transition to the Decision Level, Risk Assessment and Management
In Search of a New Paradigm: The Third Way as a Road to Logic-Based Risk Modeling (LBR)
Meta Level: Thinking about Thinking and Practices – What it Means to Reach Effective Risk Management Decisions

Target Groups
Researchers, academics, and students in the fields of finance and management
Risk professionals, consultants, analysts, politicians in the fields of economic and financial policy

The Author
Christian Hugo Hoffmann completed his doctoral studies at the University of St. Gallen and Yale University. He co-founded a financial risk management start-up which translates these theoretical results into practical impact.

Keywords
Risk Modeling Systemic Risk in Banking Contexts Logic Based Risk Management LBR Ranking Theory Monads Functional Programming Probabilities