The New Global Ecosystem in Advanced Computing: Implications for U.S. Competitiveness and National Security

This issue outlines the technical challenges, describe the global research landscape, and explore implications for competition and national security.

Computing and information and communications technology (ICT) gas dramatically changed how we work and live, has had profound effects on nearly every sector of society, has transformed whole industries, and is a key component of U.S. global leadership. A fundamental driver of advances in computing and ICT has been the fact that the single-processor performance has, until recently, been steadily and dramatically increasing year over years, based on a combination of architectural techniques, semiconductor advances, and software improvements.
Users, developers, and innovators were able to depend on those increases, translating that performance into numerous technological innovations and creating successive generations of ever more rich and diverse products, software services, and applications that had profound effects across all sectors of society.

Contents
SUMMARY
1 COMPUTER AND SEMICONDUCTOR TECHNOLOGY TRENDS AND IMPLICATIONS
1.1 Interrelated Challenges to Continued Performance Scaling
1.2 Future Directions for Hardware and Software Innovation
1.3 The Rise of Mobile Computing, Services, and Software
1.4 Summary and Implications
2 THE GLOBAL RESEARCH LANDSCAPE
2.1 Preliminary Observations from Pilot Study of Papers at Top Technical Conferences
2.2 Increased International Collaboration
2.3 Commercialization of Technologies
2.4 Growing Complexity in IT Trade – Tracing Shifts in International Competitiveness
2.5 China’s Position in the Global Semiconductor Value Chain
2.6 Concluding Remarks
3 INNOVATION POLICY LANDSCAPE – COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
3.1 Development of the U.S. Computer and Semiconductor Industry
3.2 China – Strengthening Indigenous Innovation
3.3 Taiwan – Low-cost and Fast Innovation
3.4 Korea – Coevolution of International and Domestic Knowledge Linkages
3.5 Europe – Integrated EU-wide Innovation Policy Coordination
3.6 Conclusions and Policy Implications
4 IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL ADVANCED COMPUTING LANDSCAPE FOR U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY
4.1 Parallelism in Hardware and Software
4.2 Integrity and Reliability of the Global Supply Chain
4.3 Decline of Custom Production
4.4 Convergence of Civilian and Defense Technological Capabilities
4.5 Rise of a New Post-PC Paradigm Driven by Mass ICT Consumerization
4.6 New Market-Driven Innovation Centers
4.7 The Future Educational and Research Landscape in Advanced Computing
4.8 Cybersecurity and Software
4.9 Possible Defense IT Outcomes
APPENDIXES
A. Committee Member Biographies
B. Identifying Hubs of Research Activity in Key Areas of S&T Critical to this Study
C. Contributors to the Study
D. Findings and Recommendations from The Future of Computing Performance: Game Over or Next Level?
E. Dennard Scaling and Implications
F. Pilot Study of Papers at Top Technical Conferences in Advanced Computing
G. Conference Bibliometric Data
H. Top 20 Largest Hardware and Software Companies
I. China’s Medium- and Long-Term Plan
J. List of Abbreviations

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