xGenius: Expected Goals and the Science of Winning Football Matches

'Eye-opening. An essential read for any football fan' – Jamie Carragher

A new, expanded and super-charged guide to Expected Goals (xG) analysis from the bestselling author of The Expected Goals Philosophy.

The concept of Expected Goals – or xG – has changed how we understand football. Every fan will have heard of xG, many will understand what it is, but few will know exactly how it’s being used by football teams to improve their chances of winning matches.

xGenius explores the interplay between analysis, tactics, and decision-making. It seeks to put the sport of football under the microscope with the aim of getting closer to the ultimate truth of what makes players, managers and teams successful. What, ultimately, wins football matches.

Packed with examples from the Premier League and beyond, xGenius shows how xG and other performance analysis tools are helping answer previously unanswerable questions. Were Brighton the unluckiest team in recent history? What is ‘The Timo Werner Paradox’? How many titles did Liverpool deserve to win under Jürgen Klopp? Is Son Heung-Min the greatest finisher in the modern era?

xGenius demonstrates how clubs and coaches are using data as a major tool to improve performances on the pitch. It reveals how xG helped Brighton and Brentford transform themselves into established Premier League clubs, and how such analysis was integral to Liverpool and Arsenal’s renaissance in recent years.

As teams have realised the importance of amassing high xG numbers, the average shot distances in Europe’s major leagues have plummeted, dead ball situations have become ever more important, and players who are able to accumulate large xG volumes have become increasingly valuable. Clubs have developed new systems, formations and strategies as they strive for ‘big chance creation’.

xGenius shows how top-level football analysis is being carried out by the very best in the business. The insights explored in this book will change the way you watch football.