Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas: A Primer

The ability to project population trends is of vital importance for anyone involved in planning - in the public as well as private sector. This book provides the tools for making such projections and discusses four principal approaches: mathematical extrapolation, comparative methods, cohort survival and migration models. Following the introductory chapter, which considers the need and uses of population projections, the next two chapters are concerned with mathematical extrapolation techniques, as they are the tools most commonly used to project the size of a population and are also frequently employed in projecting components of one or more of the other three approaches. In chapter three, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter four describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection - the cohort survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographic equation. This book should be welcome as an up-to-date text for courses in planning, but it should also be useful for anyone required to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth of alerting local decision makers to external uncertainties which can have a serious impact on the future of their community.