China's Evolving Nuclear Deterrent : Major Drivers and Issues for the United States

China's approach to nuclear deterrence has been broadly consistent since its first test in 1964, but it has recently accelerated nuclear force modernization. China's strategic environment is likely to grow more complex, and nuclear constituencies are gaining a larger bureaucratic voice. Beijing is unlikely to change official nuclear policies but will probably increase emphasis on nuclear deterrence and may adjust the definition of key concepts.

This report examines the key drivers, including both external and internal forces, that will shape Chinese nuclear decisionmaking over the next ten years. While it pays particular attention to China’s strategic relationship with the United States, which remains Beijing’s primary focus in formulating policy, it also considers the role that developments in third countries might play—a topic other studies have seldom treated and never systematically. In this context, China’s emergent nuclear relationship with India and dynamics on the South Asian subcontinent are likely to be particularly important. The analysis of internal drivers addresses the potential impacts of bureaucratic politics, organizational processes, and the availability of resources. This research should be of interest to nuclear specialists, Asian foreign policy and security experts, policymakers, military officers, and anyone interested in Chinese or nuclear issues.